• Up to 540 GW of planned U.S. wind, solar and storage capacity could be lost over the next decade under current federal energy policies.
• NRDC projects average household electricity rates could rise another 4.2% to 5.5% nationwide by 2035.
• Only 9 GW of additional gas capacity could replace the lost clean power, leaving the U.S. more dependent on existing fossil fuel plants.

The Trump administration’s energy policies could prevent between 390 GW and 540 GW of new U.S. wind, solar and energy storage capacity from being built over the next decade, according to projections from the Natural Resources Defense Council.

The analysis examines policies including the rollback of Inflation Reduction Act tax credits, new tariffs and federal intervention in offshore wind development. NRDC argues the combined effect could remove more than half of the clean energy capacity previously expected under market conditions and existing federal policy.

“We lose more than half of everything that we expected to be able to build with the combination of market forces and proactive policy,” said Amanda Levin, NRDC’s director of policy analysis.

The consequences extend beyond emissions targets. NRDC expects higher electricity costs, greater use of existing fossil fuel generation and increased exposure to volatile fuel prices as electricity demand rises.

Lost renewables may not be replaced

A central finding is that reduced clean energy development does not lead to an equivalent increase in new gas generation.

“Crucially, these lost projects are not actually replaced with other sources of new power,” the NRDC said in a Wednesday report. “At most, only 9 GW of additional gas capacity is added with Trump’s policies in place.”

NRDC cited gas turbine supply bottlenecks, volatile fuel costs and the cost competitiveness of renewable energy as barriers to a faster gas buildout.

Those constraints come as developers announce large volumes of new gas capacity. Global Energy Monitor counted 189 GW of U.S. gas-fired capacity in announced, pre-construction and construction phases in an August report.

However, execution remains uncertain.

“Two-thirds of gas-fired capacity in development globally, and more than half of projects tied to data centers, do not have a named turbine/engine manufacturer,” Global Energy Monitor said. “Nearly one-quarter of projects earmarked for data centers do not have a named start year. Turbine supply constraints, financing uncertainty, local data center moratoriums, and mounting public opposition leave the true scale of the gas power buildout uncertain.”

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Grid pressures complicate the gas strategy

Levin said NRDC still expects renewables to expand during the Trump administration, but at a substantially slower rate.

The group’s modeling anticipates “significant growth in renewables under this administration. But we don’t go nearly as far, and we lose more than half of everything that we expected to be able to build with the combination of market forces and proactive policy.”

Gas supply constraints are also affecting technology choices. Developers seeking faster capacity additions are increasingly considering simple-cycle turbines and reciprocating engine plants.

Global Energy Monitor said these alternatives “are less efficient than combined-cycle plants and carry higher emissions per unit of electricity generated.”

Levin argued that this strengthens the case for retaining the Environmental Protection Agency’s emissions requirements for gas-fired power plants, which the administration has said it intends to repeal.

The trend “highlights actually the value of these types of standards … which is that the market is not acting in a perfectly rational economic way,” she said. “These types of regulations could prevent this type of highly polluting type of power generation by requiring us to think about how we are building out this gas that we’re trying to build over the next few years to meet this growing load.”

Electricity bills and fossil fuel costs rise

NRDC projects the power sector could spend an additional $5 billion to $15 billion on fossil fuels as utilities rely more heavily on existing plants. At the same time, the sector could claim $45 billion less in Inflation Reduction Act tax incentives compared with NRDC’s January 2025 baseline.

“By 2035, average household electricity rates are projected to increase by an additional 4.2% to 5.5% nationwide, relative to the January 2025 Snapshot case,” the NRDC’s report said.

The group estimates some regional electricity rates could rise by as much as 25%, while a typical household could spend up to $230 more each year on home energy by 2035.

For utilities, investors and large electricity buyers, the findings point to a widening tension between federal energy policy and rapidly growing power demand. Data centers, manufacturing projects and electrification are increasing the need for generation at the same time that permitting, equipment shortages and policy changes are narrowing development options.

The broader question is becoming one of energy security as much as climate policy. If renewable deployment slows while replacement gas capacity remains constrained, the U.S. could face a more expensive and less flexible power system just as demand accelerates.

Read An Affordability Crisis of Trump’s Own Making here.

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