• France will halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and pursue carbon neutrality by 2050 under its third National Low-Carbon Strategy.
• The plan targets the end of coal consumption by 2030, oil by 2045 and fossil gas by 2050.
• Lower fossil fuel imports could save France between €22 billion and €39 billion by 2030, while climate inaction could cut GDP by 8.5 points by 2050.

The French government has adopted its third National Low-Carbon Strategy, setting new sector targets for cutting emissions, fossil fuel use and exposure to imported energy.

Known as SNBC-3, the strategy provides France’s national pathway towards carbon neutrality by 2050. It also translates the country’s climate commitments into targets for transport, industry, agriculture and energy consumption.

The strategy is updated every five years. It will guide future regulation, infrastructure planning and public investment as France works to halve emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels.

“Since 1990, France has already reduced its emissions by nearly 300 MtCO₂eq and is one of the developed countries with the lowest per capita emissions, at around 5 tonnes of CO₂e per capita,” according to the statement.

Fossil fuel phase-out gains fixed deadlines

SNBC-3 places firm dates on France’s planned withdrawal from fossil fuels. Coal consumption is due to end by 2030, followed by oil in 2045 and fossil gas in 2050.

The strategy also seeks to reduce France’s total carbon footprint by between 71% and 79% by 2050, compared with 2010. That would lower the average footprint of each resident to between 2.3 and 3.1 tonnes of CO₂e.

France’s energy bill reached €58 billion in 2024. Most of the cost was linked to imported fossil fuels, leaving the economy exposed to geopolitical risks and volatile commodity prices.

According to the strategy, electrification and decarbonisation could reduce fossil fuel imports by €22 billion to €39 billion by 2030. The government also estimates that failing to address climate change could reduce GDP by 8.5 points by 2050.

The economic case will be closely watched by investors. France must expand clean power, grids and industrial infrastructure while managing affordability and competitiveness.

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Transport and industry face steep cuts

Transport emissions must fall 26% by 2030 from 1990 levels. Emissions would decline from 125 MtCO₂eq to 92 MtCO₂eq over that period.

The sector is expected to reach “near carbon neutrality” by 2050. Electrification, biofuels, efficiency measures and lower energy consumption will drive the transition.

By 2030, the government expects electric vehicles to account for 66% of new passenger car sales. Electric models are projected to represent 90% of new bus sales.

Industry faces an even sharper adjustment. SNBC-3 calls for industrial emissions to fall 70% by 2030 and 96% by 2050, compared with 1990 levels of 140 MtCO₂eq.

Electrification, energy conservation and carbon capture will support those reductions. Electricity should account for at least 55% of industrial energy use by 2050.

The share of renewable energy in the industrial mix must also rise by 1.6 percentage points annually between 2021 and 2030. That target will require faster project approvals, stronger grids and clearer investment conditions.

Agriculture must address livestock emissions

Agricultural emissions are targeted to fall 26% by 2030 and 53% by 2050 from 1990 levels. The sector emitted 93 MtCO₂eq in the baseline year.

The plan focuses on reducing emissions from livestock, animal waste, machinery and agricultural infrastructure. Implementation could prove politically difficult, given farmer concerns over costs, regulation and international competition.

France will need policies that protect farm incomes while financing cleaner equipment and production methods. Food companies and lenders may also face greater pressure to support supply-chain emissions reductions.

Delivery becomes the central test

France’s gross greenhouse gas emissions have declined by about 4% annually since 2021. They reached 367 MtCO₂eq in 2024, down 29% from 1990.

Land use and forestry absorbed about 7% of gross emissions in 2024. Including that carbon sink, net emissions stood at 341 MtCO₂eq.

Carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion also fell by about 4% annually between 2021 and 2025, reaching 244 MtCO₂eq. Fuel combustion accounted for 68% of gross emissions in 2024.

SNBC-3 gives companies and investors a clearer view of France’s intended direction. Yet its credibility will depend on regulation, capital deployment and public acceptance.

For Europe, the strategy offers another test of whether long-term climate targets can be converted into near-term industrial policy. France must now prove that decarbonisation can reduce import dependence, protect competitiveness and deliver measurable emissions cuts.